According to a report by Japan’s Nikkei on June 3, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) announced on June 2 that the global semiconductor market size is projected to hit USD 1.5112 trillion in 2026, representing a 90% year-on-year surge from 2025. This marks the first time the global semiconductor market will cross the USD 1 trillion threshold, with the growth rate far outpacing the all-time high of 42% set in 1995.
Driven by the worldwide rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, demand for high-performance semiconductors deployed in data centers has skyrocketed. Industry heavyweights including NVIDIA and TSMC, as well as other firms such as Japan’s Kioxia Holdings, have all benefited, jointly fueling the expansion of the overall market.
WSTS’s market forecast is calculated comprehensively based on projections submitted by its member companies and macroeconomic trends. Reflecting the outlooks of major semiconductor manufacturers, the dataset is widely recognized as a key benchmark for gauging the trajectory of the semiconductor sector.
Back in December 2025, WSTS forecasted the 2026 global semiconductor market would reach USD 975.4 billion.
Market watchers had been closely monitoring whether the revised forecast would break the USD 1 trillion mark. The upward revision of the market size projection by 55% in just half a year speaks volumes about the breakneck speed of development in the semiconductor industry.
Demand for AI semiconductors has exploded since 2024. Initially, industry focus centered on semiconductors powering the "training" function for AI data processing, with demand concentrated primarily on NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs) and dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips manufactured by South Korean players.
More recently, demand for semiconductors supporting AI "inference" workloads has gained momentum. Demand has expanded beyond GPUs and DRAM to central processing units (CPUs) optimized for inference tasks, alongside NAND flash memory for long-term data storage.
Tight supply-demand balance across semiconductors is expected to bolster the financial performance of chipmakers. Kioxia Holdings, for instance, is poised to post consolidated net profit for Q2 that is 48 times the figure recorded in the same period last year.
WSTS estimates the global semiconductor market will reach USD 1.9136 trillion in 2027, a 27% year-on-year increase.
Jun Okamoto, Executive Director and Partner at KPMG Financial Advisory Services, commented: "Demand for semiconductors tied to AI servers is unlikely to fade at least through 2028."
The semiconductor market is inherently cyclical, alternating between booms and busts. Historical patterns show that sharper market peaks tend to be followed by deeper troughs. Some investors now argue that traditional cyclical rules no longer apply amid the ongoing AI boom.
A notable headwind remains sluggish sales of consumer electronics including smartphones, personal computers and game consoles. Tight supply of memory chips has pushed up chip prices, which in turn drives up the cost of end consumer products.
(Translated by Ma Xiaoyun)
